Box Office

2018 Summer Box Office Recap

Back in April I made box office projections for this summer. Now that September is upon us and enter into awards season it is time to look back and see how I did with my estimates (in order of release date). For each film, I’ll list my Projections for the film’s domestic opening weekend and the guessed final gross, and assign each film a grade. The differences will be put in a percentage by using this formula: [(Actual-Forecast)/Forecast] and assigned a grade on an arbitrary scale: A (less than 10% difference), B (10-19.9%), C (20-29.9%), D (30-39.9%) and F (over 40%).

  1. Avengers: Infinity War

Projection: $255 million (opening) / $1.6 billion (final gross)

Actual: $257.7 million (1.1%, A+) / $2.04 billion (27.5%, C)

Overall Grade: B

I was spot-on with my opening weekend estimate (not everyone thought the film would set the all-time record like I did) but was off by $500 million for the worldwide total.

BO1

  1. Deadpool 2

Projection: $125 million (opening) / $770 million (final gross)

Actual: $125.5 million (0.4%, A+) / $785 million (1.9%, A+)

Overall Grade: A+

Once again nailed the opening weekend, and was just $15 million short on the global finish end (would’ve only been $9 million had it not been re-released in December).

BO2

  1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Projection: $155/178 million (4-day opening) / $1.01 billion (final gross)

Actual: $84.4/103 million (-43.8%, F) / $392.9 million (-61.1%, F)

Overall Grade: F

Oh Solo, we hardly knew you. One of the bigger bombs in recent memory, most people– even those who predicted this would underperform–were horribly off with box office estimates and I missed big time on this one. Which is sad, because “Solo” is a pretty fun, if not forgettable, space adventure.

BO3

  1. Incredibles 2

Projection: $130 million (opening) / $1.03 billion (final gross)

Actual: $182.7 million (40.5%, F) / $1.24 billion (16.9%, B)

Overall Grade: C

This set the record for biggest debut by an animated film (and eventually the all-time worldwide record) en route to becoming Pixar’s biggest film of all-time, even if it wasn’t one of their better ones.

CMYK

  1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Projection: $170 million (opening) / $1.25 billion (final gross)

Actual: $148 million (-12.9%, B+) / $1.31 billion (4.8%, A)

Overall Grade: A-

While the opening was a bit below my expectations, the film still legged out to over $400 million domestically and made $1.3 billion. Impressive for something that received the mixed(?) reviews that this did.

Film Title: Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

  1. Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Projection: $19 million (opening) / $84 million (final gross)

Actual: $19 million (0%, A+) / $75.8 million (-9.8%, A-)

Overall Grade: A

Right down to the decimal point, it is not possible to predict a film’s opening weekend better than I did here. Do I deserve a cookie? I mean…I wouldn’t say no, but…

Benicio Del Toro and Josh Brolin star in SICARIO 2: SOLDADO.

  1. Ant-Man and the Wasp

Projection: $75 million (opening) / $620 million (final gross)

Actual: $75.8 million (1.1%, A+) / $622.7 million (0.4%, A+)

Overall Grade: A+

Another perfect score on my part, the film out-performed its predecessor in opening, domestic take and worldwide gross, and for my money was a better product. Still crazy to see a Marvel film not light the world on fire, but not horrible numbers given its $162 million budget.

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  1. Skyscraper

Projection: $32 million (opening) / $350 million (final gross)

Actual: $24.9 million (-22.2%, C+) / $304.9 million (-12.9%, B+)

Overall Grade: B

This film was never built for American audiences but having said that, its $67 million final domestic total is not great, and it will likely finish below the $300 million mark worldwide, not great for a film with a $125 million budget.

  1. Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

Projection: $29 million (opening) / $490 million (final gross)

Actual: $35 million (20.8%, C+) / $394.7 million (-19.4%, B+)

Overall Grade: B

I thought the foreign market would show up a little more than it did, but still, $394 million isn’t bad for a 10-year old sequel on a $75 million budget.

Film Title: Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

  1. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Projection: $58 million (opening) / $685 million (final gross)

Actual: $61.2 million (5.5%, A) / $791.1 million (15.5%, B)

Overall Grade: A-

The best opening for the Tom Cruise franchise, this also went down as his highest-grossing and will finish in 2018’s top 10.

MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT

Thanks for spending some time talking box office with me. Here is to a successful Oscar season!

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